Trade wars are never good news for business. But when those wars are being waged with no clear direction, no real strategy and policies that change with the wind, it creates absolute chaos. That’s exactly what companies across the world have been dealing with under Donald Trump’s ever-changing stance on trade.
One day, tariffs are up. Next, they’re down. Trade agreements get ripped up only to be renegotiated months later. For businesses, especially in logistics, transport and warehousing, this unpredictability makes planning nearly impossible. It’s not just the big corporations feeling the impact; smaller companies that don’t have the cash flow to absorb sudden cost increases are getting hit the hardest.
The cost of uncertainty
For any company importing or exporting goods, stability is key. Costs, delivery times and supply chain efficiency all depend on knowing what the rules of the game are. But under Trump, those rules keep changing.
Take tariffs, for example. Back in 2018, Trump slapped tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, claiming it was to protect American jobs. Businesses scrambled to adjust, only for the policy to shift again when trade deals were renegotiated. Then came the trade war with China, bring ing more tariffs, more uncertainty and a huge spike in logistics costs.
Even now, companies are struggling to keep up. The Wall Street Journal reported that importers like Viahart Educational Toy Co. faced unexpected bills of $20,000 when tariffs suddenly came into effect. Others, like logistics firms Redwood Logistics and Flexport, have described the situation as a nightmare, with businesses paralysed by uncertainty.
Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport, put it bluntly: "No one knows what’s coming next." That’s a terrifying reality for businesses that rely on long-term planning.
Logistics in limbo
The transport and logistics industry thrives on efficiency. Companies need to know how much it’ll cost to ship goods, how long deliveries will take and whether they need to reroute shipments due to changing regulations.
But Trump’s trade flip-flopping has made all that a guessing game. When tariffs on Chinese goods skyrocketed, many businesses rushed to import goods before the new rates kicked in. This led to a surge in demand for warehousing, pushing storage costs through the roof.
Then, there’s the issue of cross-border trade. When Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Mexico, one of America’s biggest trading partners, it sent shockwaves through the logistics industry. Suddenly, companies that relied on smooth US-Mexico trade had to rethink their entire strategy.
Some businesses started shifting their supply chains closer to home. Kuehne+Nagel, a major logistics firm, opened a new facility in Texas near the Mexican border to help companies navigate near-shoring, where businesses move manufacturing closer to their main markets to avoid trade disruptions. It’s a smart move, but not every company has the resources to make such a shift.
Warehousing woes
Warehouses are feeling the heat, too. The uncertainty around tariffs and trade deals has made businesses nervous, and many are stockpiling goods to protect themselves against future policy shifts.
This might seem like a logical response, but it’s causing major headaches for warehouse operators. Storage space is becoming more expensive, and companies are struggling to predict demand accurately. Overstocking means tying up cash in unsold goods, while understocking risks running out of inventory at the worst possible moment.
For businesses already dealing with rising rental costs and staff shortages in the warehousing sector, this extra layer of unpredictability is making operations even tougher.
Collaboration takes a hit
One of the biggest casualties of Trump’s trade policies has been business collaboration. Trade agreements provide a framework that businesses can rely on, encouraging partnerships across borders. But when those agreements get torn up or rewritten overnight, trust erodes.
Companies that once worked seamlessly with overseas suppliers are now hesitant to commit. What if a supplier suddenly gets hit with new tariffs? What if a deal that made sense last month no longer works today? This kind of uncertainty forces businesses into short-term thinking, making long-term growth and innovation much harder.
The human cost
Beyond the financial toll, there’s also the human impact. Workers in logistics, warehousing and transportation are directly affected by these trade disruptions. Companies dealing with higher costs often respond by cutting jobs, reducing shifts or freezing hiring.
For employees, that means instability. A warehouse worker who was hired to manage increased inventory might find themselves out of a job when tariffs change again and companies suddenly decide to cut stock levels instead. The transport industry, already facing driver shortages, is struggling to plan when policies keep shifting.
This kind of uncertainty takes a toll on morale. When workers don’t know if they’ll have a job next month, productivity drops. Businesses, in turn, suffer from higher staff turnover and the costs associated with constant hiring and training.
The bigger picture
Some might argue that Trump’s aggressive trade policies were meant to strengthen the US economy. But the reality is that businesses need stability to thrive. Constant flip-flopping doesn’t encourage growth, it stifles it.
The US-China trade war alone cost American businesses an estimated $1.7 trillion, according to the US Chamber of Commerce. Companies spent years building supply chains based on existing trade agreements only to see those agreements dismantled. The result? Rising costs, delayed shipments and a huge administrative burden as businesses scrambled to comply with new regulations.
For logistics firms, transport companies and warehouse operators, the damage has been significant. Efficiency has suffered, costs have gone up, and long-term planning has become a near-impossible task.
What’s next?
For now, businesses are bracing for more unpredictability. With Trump back in the White House for his second term, the rollercoaster of trade policies is already more than anyone could have envisaged. The question isn’t if more trade disruptions are coming; it’s when and how bad they’ll be.
For companies that rely on global trade, the best strategy right now is adaptability. Investing in flexible supply chains, diversifying sourcing locations and exploring near-shoring options could provide some protection against future shocks. Technology, too will play a key role. Advanced analytics, AI-driven forecasting and automation can help businesses stay agile in the face of uncertainty.
But at the end of the day, what businesses really need is a clear and consistent trade policy. Without it, companies will continue to face unnecessary risks, increased costs and ongoing disruption. And that’s bad news not just for logistics, transport and warehousing but for the entire global economy.
For now, though, businesses have no choice but to prepare for more unpredictability. Because if Trump’s record is anything to go by, the only thing we can be sure of is that nothing will stay the same for long.